Created: Fri, 04 Oct 2013 07:19:00 EST
Updated: Sun, 06 Oct 2013 11:31:25 EST
Central Georgia remains poised to welcome Tropical Storm Karen to the region by late Sunday. WGXA's Chief Meteorologist Jeff Cox has been monitoring this potential all week and has the latest in-depth analysis below:
Based on current trends, I still expect Tropical Storm Karen to impact central Georgia. Having said that, based on new data, I have chosen to make some adjustments to our forecast and the ultimate impacts I think we'll see, and where.
A simple shift in the track, west or east, of any tropical storm, can have a big influence on what impacts you experience. The cold front that will attach itself to Tropical Storm Karen has slowed down, which we advertised would be possible, thus allowing Karen to go a bit further west into areas from New Orleans to Mobile. I still expect a hard turn to the northeast, but have shifted the worst of the impacts to areas south and east of Macon. I have also adjusted the timing of my forecast to account for Karen's slowed forward momentum. That means the worst of the impacts will move into central later Sunday, lingering into the day Monday.
Here's what I expect as of Friday afternoon:
1) Rainy and windy Sunday night and Monday: Rainfall totals will be highest along and east of I-75 (generally south and east of Macon). Those areas will likely see at least 1 inch of rain with isolated higher amounts. Wind gusts will be a concern overnight Sunday and through the day Monday. I won't be surprised to hear of wind gusts topping 40 mph in some areas.
2) With any tropical system, isolated tornadoes can't be ruled out.
3) Based on current trends, I think Karen will begin to exit central Georgia later Monday.
As we go through the weekend, with new observations and new forecast data to analyze, I will continue to post updates on our Facebook page - find that by searching WGXA.tv. And as always, Stay tuned to WGXA for the latest information! Meteorologist Clinton Bourgeois will have updates on WGXA News at 10 p.m. on FOX 24 both Saturday and Sunday night.